NFL Playoff Conference Championship: Top Bets
This years conference championships are probably two of the best matchups we have seen in the playoffs in a while. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are traveling to Green Bay to take on the red got Packers. And the Buffalo Bills are heading into Arrowhead to try and get revenge on the Kansas City Chiefs from the matchup earlier in the year. Here are some of my favorite bets for Sunday:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers 3:05 EST
Rob Gronkowski Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Throughout the season, we’ve seen Brady and Gronkowski start to play like their old selves. The last time these two played, Gronkowski also led the Bucs in receiving with five receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. Throughout the playoffs, we’ve seen Brady target Gronkowski a ton in the redzone and I think we will see more of that today.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Although he isnt the top receiver on the roster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling still gets a ton of targets and usually makes big plays in games like today. I think Rodgers will take advantage of the Bucs secondary and we’ll see Valdes-Scantling make a big play today. Last time these two teams faced off, Valdes-Scantling only had 32 yards, so I think he will have a better game today.
Aaron Jones Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-108)
Throughout the regular season, Jones broke off numerous runs for 20+ yards and it seemed like he was doing it with ease. Towards the end of the year, it seemed like the Packers were limiting his carries which was quite confusing. In games where they fed him the ball, good things happened. Prior to the postseason, I said the Packers would need to get Aaron Jones going if they wanted to make a postseason run (HERE). I think they will give him a ton of carries against Tampa Bay and there will be at least one run he breaks off for 15+ yards.
Carlton Davis Interception (+800)
This is by far the least likely to happen but I had to throw one surprise in there. Earlier in the season, Carlton Davis was one of the quickest corners to have four interceptions but he hasn't had one in a while. The only way this Bucs team takes down the Packers again is to force turnovers. Carlton Davis will be lined up with Davante Adams all game and we know Rodgers is going to target Adams a ton (as he should). Of all the surprises, I think there is a chance Carlton Davis comes up with an interception today.
BONUS: Aaron Rodgers First Completion Over 8.5 Yards (-122)
Early on I think we could see the Packers try to take a deep shot in this game. Rodgers also averages 8.2 yards per attempt and it will take a little while for the Bucs secondary to get used to playing in Green Bay, so I think Rodgers will move the ball quickly and throw some deeper passes. Against the Rams, Rodgers first pass was for eight yards and against the Bears his first pass was for 15 so it'll be interesting to see.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs 6:40 PM EST
Buffalo Bills ML (+128)
Everybody is disagreeing with this pick early on but I think the Bills take down the Chiefs in Kansas City. I think the Bills offense will come ready to play and put up a ton of points. The storyline for the game will be what the Bils can do defensively. Their secondary didn't play too well against the Colts in the Wildcard round. But they played better against the Baltimore Ravens last week. They will need Tre'Davious White to play much better and limit Tyreek Hill. But overall, I think the Bills offense will be too much for the Chiefs to stop.
Gabriel Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+330) and Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+330)
The Chiefs are going to be doing everything they can to stop one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Stefon Diggs. I think this will open the gates for Gabriel Davis to have a big day. Davis has also been important for Josh Allen this year and I think we could see a big play out of him today. Dawson Knox is one of Josh Allen's main redbone threats. When the Bills get near the goal line it seems like Allen always finds Knox for a touchdown. It will be tough for the Chiefs to shut this passing game down.
Patrick Mahomes 350+ Yards (+210)
This is one of my surprise bets but it's insane to me how high the odds are for this. Like I said before, the Bills have struggles in the passing game and that is never good for a team playing the Chiefs. I think people believe Mahomes may have some struggles because he is coming off injury, but I don't think that will affect him today. Mahomes will have his way against this Bills defense but I think it will be the same on the other side of the ball for the Bills.
Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions (-152)
This was one of my easier picks for this game. Tyreek Hill has been a monster all season and this is an important game, so he will need to step up to win the game. In games like these, Mahomes seems to target Kelce and Hill way more which is expected. I think Hill will get the ball a ton in this one.
BONUS: Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
Like I stated before, I really don't think the Chiefs have too good of a defense and last week against the Ravens we saw they were throwing the ball a ton. Josh Allen struggled the last time the Bills took on the Chiefs but he still threw for two touchdowns and he's only gotten better since then. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs defense matches up against this pass-heavy offense.
(All bets courtesy of Fanduel Sports Book)